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Warming hits 'tipping point'


Siberia feels the heat It's a frozen peat bog the size of France and Germany combined, contains billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas and, for the first time since the ice age, it is melting

A vast expanse of western Sibera is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today.

Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.


The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures.

The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today.

The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometre across.

Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming". He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years.

Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards.

"When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply," said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

"This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing."

In its last major report in 2001, the intergovernmental panel on climate change predicted a rise in global temperatures of 1.4C-5.8C between 1990 and 2100, but the estimate only takes account of global warming driven by known greenhouse gas emissions.

"These positive feedbacks with landmasses weren't known about then. They had no idea how much they would add to global warming," said Dr Viner.

Western Siberia is heating up faster than anywhere else in the world, having experienced a rise of some 3C in the past 40 years. Scientists are particularly concerned about the permafrost, because as it thaws, it reveals bare ground which warms up more quickly than ice and snow, and so accelerates the rate at which the permafrost thaws.

Siberia's peat bogs have been producing methane since they formed at the end of the last ice age, but most of the gas had been trapped in the permafrost. According to Larry Smith, a hydrologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, the west Siberian peat bog could hold some 70bn tonnes of methane, a quarter of all of the methane stored in the ground around the world.

The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst, said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter.

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Originally by: Thanos Draicon

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What's even worse is that plenty of people still believe that global warming is fictional.


If I remember correctly, we've got about 30 years to make serious corrections before it becomes impossible for humans to prevent a major climate change. It's probably closer to 25 now...

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Originally by: Derovius Vaden

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Over dramaticized rather than fictional. We have more to fear from our nuclear powerplants waste than we do from the CO2 we release from combustion.

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Hell, all the cows in the world release approximately 1/5th of the worlds entire greenhouse gases. Cows ffs. If it ever comes down to it, we'll make artificial ozone and dump it into the atmosphere. But thats a real big if.

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Originally by: DarkMatter

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Edited by: DarkMatter on 17/09/2007 19:41:04
Global warming is all about scare tactics...

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We're not going to kill the planet.

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Originally by: DarkMatter

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There could have been hurricanes 10X worse than that 90,000 years ago, but no one was here to catalog that now were they?

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Global warming is a theory, just like the Big Bang...

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There is insufficient data to call global warming a 100% truth.

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Until every person in the world who makes more money than me sacrifices personal wealth in the name of global warming, I will not change how I live on this planet. That's the bottom line...

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If you want to be an eco-masochist, by all means, go right ahead. I'll watch...

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Originally by: DarkMatter

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Ice cores will NOT tell you the whole story, that ICE has not been there for 4.5 billion years...

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Originally by: voogru

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Edited by: voogru on 17/09/2007 23:43:46
Global warming is a scam.

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Originally by: Kastar

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The climate rapidly changed 1000's of times in the past in either direction. Whether it's due to a comet, humans ejecting gases or an earthquake on the seabeds releasing billions of tons of methane has no importance.

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I wouldn't be surprised if the hype would be partially fed by the energy lobbies all around the world. The real challenge for humanity will not be the climate. We already adapted to that, people will only have to move from certain coastal regions or move to others with more agricultural possibilities.

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I find it ridiculous that people are arguing about a climate change, but not about us destroying everything we encounter. A climate change means it will become warmer here and there, wetter on other spots and colder in yet other places. On the other hand, a rainforest that is gone is gone forever since humans take it's place, with according disappearance of all lifeforms.

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We're an odd lot, and we're too many.

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Originally by: Sokratesz

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If i may quote one major republican lunatic, a certain Ann coulter:

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Originally by: Jim McGregor

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Edited by: Jim McGregor on 19/09/2007 11:32:03

Most of the other planets in our solar system are also heating up, so its not just a earth event. From what Ive read, scientists are in disagreement of the causes. Some say its different reasons on different planets, others say that the sun is heating up, producing a warmer climate on all the planets. Others disagree that the sun is heating up.

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Originally by: Sokratesz

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Id be deligthed to hear some motivation on that smiley cause now it doesnt tell me anything =P

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Originally by: Sokratesz

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Does that mean you agree with me thinking shes a lunatic?

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Originally by: Locus Bey

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http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/werent-temperatures-warmer-during-the-medieval-warm-period-than-they-are-today/

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Originally by: Locus Bey

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it was in response to the person who posted about it earlier. it is a common bogus argument used to say GW isn't happening.

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Originally by: Nyphur

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I'm really not seeing a good counterargument to living underground here. I'll start digging, who wants to live in my new underground land?

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Originally by: Talidair

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For the record though, I don't belive we are having an impact as large as some people speculate. I Choose to have the things I do becuase I like don't like to depend on anything outside of my own making to live.

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Originally by: Arron S

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Seroisy, **** africa, After trillions of dollars of aid, they have nothing to show for it. They do not want to live like the rest of the world, so just let them live they way they want to live and **** off.

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Originally by: Talidair

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I'm pretty much as far away from being a peasent as you can get. Comments like your elitist dribble are why the enviornmental movement hits so much resistance.

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Originally by: Arron S

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How am I racist??.. If Africa were full of white people, you would not be calling me racist. Colour of their ******* skin has nothing to do with why Africa is a **** hole, its their actions **** wit.

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Originally by: Arron S

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